2020 brings with it the 10th year of recovery since the global financial crisis. Equity markets continue to break records, ample credit is available, yet the bullish performance appears cosmetic at times and investing in Europe in 2020 is fraught with political risks. The US deficit doubled from $385bn to $779bn last year, the UK […]
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Investing in Europe in 2020 – The Year Ahead
An overview of some European key themes and political risks for 2020
Blood Moons, Animal Spirits and Hunting Knives
H2 2019 Europe Update
Investor trepidation towards Europe in today’s markets is understandable. Regional macro data remain anemic. Europe continues to produce weak data, Euro-Area economic sentiment saw its worst losing streak in a decade and low interest rates are set to continue throughout the medium term. Meanwhile, the Fed has raised rates nine times since December 2015, taking […]
Navigating Europe in 2019
Themes and Risks Investors in Europe to Consider in 2019
We are nearly 20 years into the new millennium and it is an unrecognizable place compared to when it started. Lehman is gone, Bear Stearns – gone, Merrill Lynch – acquired, Citigroup is a fraction of its former self. Blockbuster, Toys R Us, Woolworths are all part of the history books now. Europe, where we […]
Distressed Retail in the UK
If one ever needed tangible evidence of how much consumer habits have changed over the past decade, look no further than the UK high street. The litany of failures and restructurings continue unabated. In H1 2018 alone, the following establishments have issued announcements: Byron’s Burgers: Closing of 20 (or 30%) of its 67 premises while […]
Welcome
Wanted:
[Able bodies] for hazardous journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.
Allegedly from Sir Ernest Shackleton – TransArtic Explore
The posts that follow are our insights as they relate to the current investment climate across Europe. The discussions are broad and cross-disciplinary in nature, but will hopefully be of interest for readers and investors allocating to Europe. As we partner with management teams and entrepreneurs to explore promising investment themes, we will use this […]
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Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and the FT (ECB)
“The ECJ ruled in December 2018 that the PSPP is legal. Therefore, it is clear for us that we can and have to continue our monetary policy in line with our mandate to make sure that in the medium term we are getting back to our inflation aim of below, but close to, 2 per […]
How will COVID-19 impact Brexit? (Bruegel)
“Talks have been delayed, the negotiators themselves have been sick and policymakers have needed to give their full attention to fighting the virus. Nevertheless, the U.K. continues to insist it will not ask for or accept an extension in June, the current deadline for establishing such measures. As a result, European politics is back to its […]
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB (El País)
“The speed at which the economy bounces back will then hinge on whether consumers are more reluctant to consume and businesses hold back on investment. From today’s perspective, it looks in any case unlikely that economic activity will return to its pre-crisis level before 2021, if not later.” – Luis Doncel
U.S. Hedge funds face heightened enforcement risk in France (GBFR)
“U.S. hedge funds should anticipate heightened regulatory scrutiny and enforcement risk in France. ” – by Freshfields
Wave of U.S. Bankruptcies Builds Toward Worst Run in Many Years (Bloomberg)
“So far in 2020, the pace of corporate bankruptcy filings in the U.S. has already surpassed every year since 2009, the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Bloomberg data show.” – by Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, Katherine Doherty, and Davide Scigliuzzo